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But I think Kindle or some other product like it may just change this trend. After all, there's a huge difference between lugging a book around to having a Kindle in your backpack.
Thanks for the comment, nino. The small form factor of the Kindle or similar product could definitely change things. But people have to want to read in the first place... for me it's not convenience, it's interest. Can the medium of the content change that?
It depends what your question is--are books on the way out, as physical objects containing printed pages with stories on them, or is reading, as a past time, on the way out?
I'm in the camp that says that people are reading more than they have been in the last 20 years. The internet, with the popularization of blogging, has cultivated an entire generation of writers and, therefore, readers. Maybe not enough people are picking up Moby Dick, but that doesn't mean they are reading.
You should've seen how Annie Ingram's English Language class reacted to the release of the Kindle--only threatening the relevance of a book could turn a class full of 18-22-year-olds into a bunch of grumpy old men.
And for the record, the talk of books sucked me in, not Steve Jobs. ;)
Concerning the Kindle, if I ever bought one(which I won't), I'd probably download a whole bunch of books but they'd never get read. I can't read long stories or articles on a computer screen, and the Kindle is no different to me.
I doubt I'll ever own one, but if I could have a Kindle with all my favorite reference texts on there, instead of carrying around my giant Princeton Guide to Poetry and Poetics, I'd be a happier person.
You have completely hit it on the mark! I work for an internet publisher and believe me, there is a huge demand for written content--more now than ever before.
People aren't necessarily reading less, they're just reading books less. And who can blame them when the cost of a paperback is upwards of $15 and hardbacks twice that?
I just heard about kindle today and I am thoroughly impressed providing the books get converted. No content is lose.
I think Kindle will just be another gadget that you tuck into your backpack for the convenience of information retrieval at a snap. But what Jobs may not have considered is how laptops have created a new market -- perhaps even converting people who before didn't bother to read or write but are now blogging and reading blogs and other content on the web.
I confess, though. I want a Kindle because carrying my library anywhere I go is kind of a cool thing for me. But that doesn't mean I will stop buying books in their printed form, because I still love the feel of owning them.
Harry Potter is of course a wonderful exclusion to that, but the overall effect is the same: we read snippets of online articles (when was the last time you scrolled through one of those 15-pager articles on the New York Times website?), blog posts and commentary (ahem), and the advertisements on the roads to and from work.
The Kindle will fail, I hope, for two reasons. One, because it is connected to online newspapers, journals, etc., as well as books, it skirts the prime reason we never sit down to read books for any appreciable length of time--we can't beat to NOT be distracted these days.
But also, people need to realize that books, that bound paper, is the ultimate "digital" format. I'm not sure exactly how I mean that, but I think you probably know what I mean - you can write with an "ink pen" on the pages of a book -- and next time you log in - I mean open it up - your markings are STILL THERE! Pretty amazing. Sustained reading, the kind that books necessitate, require a bit of isolation from the world around us, and the clearning of sufficient mental space for the assimilation of the printed word. No amount of technological progress will change that.
Ours came of age in the infancy of the video game and Internet explosion, and so we were still instilled with the desire to read in our younger days. We have grown up right alongside this connected world, and so maybe while our desire to read hasn't changed, our desire for a better medium to act on that desire has.
Maybe this is why earlier e-readers have largely failed in the past. Our parents' generation grew up with books, and so they're hooked to them. Print is what they know; many have latched on quite nicely to "our" world of the Internet, but they will always buy and read real books. But starting with us (or maybe our slightly younger peers), that attachment to the physical book is not as strong (as evidenced by some of the comments: "I still love to read books, but man is lugging them around inconvenient.") Our generation wants to read, it seems, but we want it to be easy and we want it to be fast. Maybe that's why Amazon took a risk to make the Kindle now, when the frontrunners of the Internet generation are graduating, getting jobs, making money, and looking to spend it. We love to read, but don't want to be tied down by spine and page. The Kindle and its competitors give us the freedom and the speed we seek.
So here's my question about the generations coming after us. They're being born into the wired world of Web 2.0, the Wii, and Wikipedia. Will it take a strong and sustained effort by parents and teachers to instill in them the same desire to read for fun? We're seeing a huge rise in child obesity because of the difficulty in convincing kids to choose the playground over the Playstation. Will that generation feel that need to read for pleasure that we and our parents feel? Should we try to hook that generation into reading for fun by giving it to them through this new digital medium, like the Kindle? Is that our duty?
I wrote all this before I saw nino and Joel's recent comments. Joel, do you think that the next generation will choose the book to take solace from the world, or their Xbox? Do we need to teach kids to love pen-to-paper, to love the printed word? Is that inhibiting progress or (gasp) change? Are we doing a service or a disservice by holding on to a medium that seems to have been, at least technologically, transcended?
Nino, the end of your comment made me think of a great comparison. Could it be that, down the road, printed books will be like vinyl LPs? Produced in limited numbers, used by the very few who know it to be the best quality of sound you can get, but mostly collected for their nostalgic value? Could the Kindle be the cassette tape, and then something better in a few years (are you listening now, Mr. Jobs?) be the CD?
Reading used to be a solitary, linear process that now has been revolutionized--type is searchable now, and hypertextual. Someone mentioned Wikipedia--what's the theory behind reading Wikipedia? If you're anything like me, you start by looking up the name of a character in Wuthering Heights and find myself 8 links and 2 hours later, reading about the origins of bloodletting in British medicine.
The Kindle encourages this kind of behavior--no, it's not hypertextual, yet, but give it time. Ultimately, books may very well be on the way out, but given the popularity of blogging culture in the last several years, I'd definitely not say that reading is going out of fashion.
And one more thing--as long as books smell like paper, people will have a visceral relationship to them. I'm all about advancement (I love me some gadgetry), but I'm crazy about a well-bound book. Call me crazy, but I think there are plenty of book nerds who will continue to agree ages from now.
And so that's why I wonder about the future of the book, the physical object. I think you're right, they'll always exist and always be published. But I think the day is a-comin' when they will no longer be the dominant medium of fiction and non-fiction alike. I really believe they will be like vinyl records - beautiful, touchable, and noble, but largely collector's items.
--The screen, as previously mentioned, is unbelievable. I find myself reading books, newspapers and magazines precisely because reading a computer screen is draining on the eyes and ultimately not as relaxing as truly printed text. The Kindle essentially solves that problem and makes "cuddling up with a computer" a much more manageable proposition...I've tried with my iBook but it doesn't cuddle well.
--The hard drive. I love books, but I'm usually reading between 3 and 6 at any given time. Call me a product of the RSS Feed generation, but depending on my mood I've read in the past week some of: a book about local food production, a book about the founder of patagonia, two novels (one set in Afghanistan and one in California), and a book of short stories. The Kindle enables my short attention span and widely-varying moods by having all of those texts at my fingertips. I'm about to travel this weekend, and I'm facing a huge dilemma: which of these heavy, unwieldy hardcovers and paperbacks do I lug with me? Perhaps the Kindle would mean I would never finish ANY book since it would be TOO EASY to change midstream, but too easy sounds ok to me.
--The combination of real books with blogs, newspapers, etc. "Don't make me choose" I often shout (in my head...) at my computer, sitting next to a stack of books I want to read. It's so hard to read a book these days without feeling like I'm falling behind on news, blogs, email, etc. At least with the Kindle I can have both....check the NY Times headlines or the latest hotness at Tropophilia from the airport terminal, then dig into a great novel on the flight. Simplicity and access to all sorts of information.
I might be in the minority, but books are still a big part of how I explore new ideas and relax. Any gadget that helps me do that in an easier fashion, with a wide range of reading options at any second, is good in my view.
Sorry Steve, I've gotta go with Amazon on this one (can I have my free Kindle now, pleaaase?)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000FI73MA/ref...
guess some people shared my enthusiasm....
I'm with this dude; Apple will have books on iTunes for a future, larger iPhone-type tablet in several years
[P.S.: Taylor, comments are not part of my Apple embargo. Awwwwwwwwwseeyuh.]
http://www.teleread.org/blog/2007/09/11/do-real...
To your points, Jarred: I think you're right on. You don't read books because the information/entertainment isn't on par with your Google Reader stream in terms of responsiveness to your mood. Bookshelves (in small apartments) are only so big. Enter e-readers.
http://www.comedycentral.com/motherload/player....
But some remain the same. I've read ebooks on my PDA (though that one doesn't cuddle well, either) and laptop -- and cover to cover, too. One thing I realized about tech-oriented reading is this: it doesn't matter on what you're reading it from, as long as the text hooks you into its world, you're in a different zone. So whether it's turning the page, or clicking the "next" button, it doesn't bother you because you need to keep on reading till you come to the end of the e-/book.
Printed books as vinyl LPs? Perhaps, especially if we keep on cutting down trees for paper (remember the Harry Potter environmental alarm?). Kindle as the cassette tape before the age of CD? I hope so. ;-)
http://BookStatistics.com
I am a writer and have a strong bias toward books - I really enjoy them! I spend an enormous amount of time at my computer - researching the internet, writing and whatnot, and it's a great research, email and composing tool, but I find it to be terrible for reading long works. Someday someone may produce a format that works as well as a book, but they haven't so far.
I was born in 1942 and grew up with great movies and great television. I am vastly disappointed in the quality of both today. As a result, I shut down my cable and turned back to reading a while ago - one of the best things I have ever done! I do not believe my life will suffer much because I am not seeing American Idol or the incredible banality of cable coverage of the primaries. Steve may not read books, but he also has a vested interest in the computer business, so I don't trust his response.
There is a considerable difference between baby sitting - television, U-tube and many books today, and thoughtful, enlightened discourse or really great literature. Yes, we have many more books, blogs and other media sources, but much of it is of marginal quality. When manufactured shoes and clothing appeared in the 1840's, the masses were better served, but the quality of the goods were mediocre. The issue of that loss of quality was the source of the commonly mischarachterized Luddite Rebellion. Such seems to be the march of progress. Wal Mart, anyone?
People may may still read, but they just don't "consume" books at a rate high enough for an e-reader to be worth developing?
Jobs got into the music and movie business with iTunes and the iPod because people consume those products at regular enough rates to make the business profitable. If we only listened to six or seven songs or albums a year, or just five or six movies a year, the iTunes Store and the iPod would not be nearly as valuable. But people consume music and movies so frequently that it makes developing those products worth the investment. The return on an Apple investment in an e-reader, however, would just not be enough to justify the development of that sort of product.
Yes, the Kindle is selling like madness now... but is that because of its novelty or because of its innate long-run usefulness? Will the trend last? I think Jobs is betting that it won't. I bet he thinks that for the average person, books -- as opposed to albums or movies -- are consumed at too slow a rate to justify a device to ease consumption of them.
How often will the average Kindle owner download a book? Once a month? Does that justify the device? Will Kindle owners return to books on their devices like they relisten to albums and rewatch movies and TV shows? The inclusion of blogs, newspapers, etc. helps with the justification of the device and its purchase, but does it solidify it? I think Jobs is betting that it doesn't, and believes that a more ubiquitous device with e-mail, web browser, document editing (in short, a Mac Tablet) is the real product that needs development. Having a specialty device just for books is probably myopic in his opinion.
Unfortunately, new media do not very often promote long-term beneficial habits, skills or outlooks. Kindle, however, may prove be the exeception to this trend - because it brings the amazing capability of offering convenient access a vast library full of choices along with portability. It will spare some forests, and reduce the print runs of books, possibly putting some printers out of work - and giving them more time to read.